WASHINGTON (AP) — No one begs Santa Claus for cheapergasoline. Yet falling gas prices are
shaping up as an unexpected giftfor drivers — and for people on their holiday shopping lists.Theaverage
price of gasoline has tumbled 49 cents from its peak this yearto $3.29 a gallon, putting it on track for
the lowest average since2010, according to AAA. Because many Americans have had no pay raises,whatever
money they’re saving on gas has freed up a bit more for otherpurchases.And history shows that when gas
prices drop, consumersbecome more likely to splurge on dinners out. Impulse buys at the mallseem like
less of a stretch. More people buy a gas-station gift cardafter fueling up.Many retail analysts have
forecast a ho-humsales gain of around 2 percent this year; others predict an increase ofup to 3.9
percent. But steadily cheaper gas could send holiday salesshooting above 5.4 percent, analysts
say."Every little thingmoves the needle at this point," said Carl Riccadonna, senior
U.S.economist at Deutsche Bank. "The benefit at this time of the yearcertainly helps retailers,
since it is not spread evenly throughout theyear."Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil
InformationService, foresees the average price drifting down, as it typically doesthis time of year, to
as low as $3.05 by year’s end.Forretailers, the best-case scenario would be for the national average
tobreach $3 a gallon, a psychological barrier that could help acceleratespending.Cheaper gas could help
build on the momentum of 2million more Americans finding jobs this year. It might also help shoreup
consumers’ fragile confidence in an economic recovery that’s lumberedalong for 4½ years.Riccadonna
estimates that breaking $3 gaswould lead the average shopper to spend $47 more over the holidays.
Thatfigure would translate into $15 billion worth of extra shopping —possibly the difference between
lukewarm and red-hot sales growth.Pricesbriefly dipped below $3 in five states — Arkansas, Kansas,
Missouri,Oklahoma and Texas — before rising above that threshold again.Someservice stations have been
charging less than $3 around Tucson, Ariz.,where Seth Nilson, a high school teacher, and his wife,
Cristi, areenjoying more time at restaurants."We have definitely gone out to eat more lately,"
Nilson said. "She tends to cook less when gas prices are low."Manyconsumers think of gas
prices in 50-cent increments, said Britt Beemer,head of the consumer behavior consultant America’s
Research Group.Based on his firm’s research, shoppers would spend more freely if gassettles below $3 or
$2.50. They would likely step up purchases atgrocery stores or spend $35 on a gift instead of the $25
they might haveplanned, Beemer said."A 10-cent drop doesn’t really change the equation much,"
Beemer said.Still, smaller declines in gas prices matter, too, even if they don’t register as clearly
with consumers.Economistssay lower prices disproportionately benefit lower- and middle-incomeconsumers
who must commute to work. Cheaper gas makes their trips moreaffordable and provides the equivalent of a
tax refund that frees upspending money.Given the still-sluggish economic recovery, manyshoppers are
expected to tilt toward practical gifts, like gas stationgift cards, said Pam Goodfellow of Prosper
Insights & Analytics, whopolled consumers for the National Retail Federation.Her surveyfound
that the average gift card this year is expected to be worth$45.16, up from $43.75 a year ago — for a
rough total of $1 billionmore. Twelve percent of shoppers say they intend to buy gas station giftcards
this year, compared with 9.3 percent in 2010.The potentialeconomic boost comes at a low point for
consumer confidence. Confidencewas battered by the partial government shutdown and the troubled launchof
President Barack Obama’s health care law, which led insurers tocancel coverage for millions.Many major
chain stores have actedaggressively to generate sales. Macy’s will open on Thanksgiving nightfor the
first time in its history, while Wal-Mart kicked off its usualBlack Friday discounts a week before the
holiday.More consumershave not only been turning to Internet retailers like Amazon.com.They’ve also been
browsing store websites ahead of time so they’ll needto make fewer stops at the mall. But this year may
bring a wrinkle:Falling gas prices tend to cause consumers to drive to brick-and-mortarstores more
frequently, increasingly the likelihood that they’ll expandtheir shopping lists."They become less
surgical in their shoppingbehavior," said Bill Martin, executive vice president of retail
analystShopperTrak. "That opens the door to more impulse buying."Lowergas prices also tend to
encourage a big-ticket purchase that a growingnumber of Americans make during the holidays: cars. Steep
discounts andaggressive advertising helped sales increase 9 percent last December tomore than 1.3
million, up from an 8.7 percent increase in 2011,according to Autodata Corp.Market data tracked by
Edmunds.comfound that the share of SUVs, crossovers and trucks sold has ticked up afew percentage points
to 18 percent or more in December, compared withas low as 14 percent in spring, when gas prices usually
spike.Edmunds.comchief economist Lacey Plache expects a slightly more modest increasethis December. But
she said auto dealers are adopting the samestrategies as big box retailers eager to lure customers at
year’s end."We’veseen the rise of the whole Black Friday phenomenon," Plache
said."There’s this mentality that all the good deals are available in thelatter part of the
year."Many consumers also know that lower gasprices this time of year are usually short-lived. So
holiday-timespending typically provides a temporary lift, a short-lived chance toenjoy a new restaurant
or buy another stocking stuffer."Now, ifgas went to 99 cents a gallon," said Allena Portis, an
accountant in theSan Francisco area, "that would mean something."Copyright 2013 The Associated
Press. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten orredistributed.