BERLIN (AP) — The cost of keeping global warming in check
is "relatively modest," but only if the world acts quickly to reverse
the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, the head of the
U.N.’s expert panel on climate change said Sunday.
Such gases,
mainly CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, rose on average by 2.2
percent a year in 2000-2010, driven by the use of coal in the power
sector, officials said as they launched the Intergovernmental Panel of
Climate Change’s report on measures to fight global warming.
Without
additional measures to contain emissions, global temperatures will rise
about 3 degrees to 4 degrees Celsius (5 degrees to 7 degrees
Fahrenheit) by 2100 compared to current levels, the panel said.
"The
longer we delay the higher would be the cost," IPCC chairman Rajendra
Pachauri told The Associated Press after the panel’s weeklong session in
Berlin. "But despite that, the point I’m making is that even now, the
cost is not something that’s going to bring about a major disruption of
economic systems. It’s well within our reach."
The IPCC, an
international body assessing climate science, projected that shifting
the energy system from fossil fuels to zero- or low-carbon sources
including wind and solar power would reduce consumption growth by about
0.06 percentage points per year, adding that that didn’t take into
account the economic benefits of reduced climate change. "The loss in
consumption is relatively modest," Pachauri said.
The IPCC said
the shift would entail a near-quadrupling of low-carbon energy — which
in the panel’s projections included renewable sources as well as nuclear
power and fossil fuel-fired plants equipped with technologies to
capture some of the emissions.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called it a global economic opportunity.
"So
many of the technologies that will help us fight climate change are far
cheaper, more readily available, and better performing than they were
when the last IPCC assessment was released less than a decade ago,"
Kerry said.
The IPCC said large changes in investments would be
required. Fossil fuel investments in the power sector would drop by
about $30 billion annually while investments in low-carbon sources would
grow by $147 billion. Meanwhile, annual investments in energy
efficiency in transport, buildings and industry sectors would grow by
$336 billion.
The message contrasted with oil and gas company
Exxon Mobil’s projection two weeks ago that the world’s climate policies
are "highly unlikely" to stop it from selling fossil fuels far into the
future, saying they are critical to global development and economic
growth.
Coal emissions have declined in the U.S. as some power
plants have switched to lower-priced natural gas but they are fueling
economic growth in China and India.
The IPCC avoided singling out
any countries or recommending how to share the costs of climate action
in the report, the third of a four-part assessment on climate change.
Though
it is a scientific body, its summaries outlining the main findings of
the underlying reports need to be approved by governments. This brings a
political dimension to the process.
In Berlin, a dispute erupted
over whether to include charts that showed emissions from large
developing countries are rising the fastest as they expand their
economies. Developing countries said linking emissions to income growth
would divert attention from the fact that historically, most emissions
have come from the developed nations, which industrialized earlier.
"This
is the first step for developed countries of avoiding responsibilities
and saying all countries have to assume the responsibility for climate
change," said Diego Pacheco, the head of Bolivia’s delegation in Berlin.
In
the end the charts were taken out of the summary, but would remain in
the underlying report, which was to be published later in the week,
officials said.
Counting all emissions since the industrial
revolution in the 18th century, the U.S. is the top carbon polluter.
China’s current emissions are greater than those of the U.S. and rising
quickly. China’s historical emissions are expected to overtake those of
the U.S. in the next decade.
The IPCC summary also refrained from
detailed discussions on what level of financial transfers are needed to
help developing countries shift to cleaner energy and adapt to climate
change.
Another IPCC report, released last month, warned that
flooding, droughts and other climate impacts could have devastating
effects on economies, agriculture and human health, particularly in
developing countries.
"The world’s poorest nations are in need of
economic development. But they need to be helped to leapfrog dirty
energy and develop in a way which won’t entrench their poverty by making
climate change worse," said Mohamed Adow of charity group Christian
Aid.
The IPCC reports provide the scientific basis for U.N.
climate negotiations. Governments are supposed to adopt a new climate
agreement next year that would rein in emissions after 2020.
The
ambition of that process is to keep warming below 1.2 degrees Celsius
(2.2 Fahrenheit) compared to today’s levels. Global temperatures have
already gone up 0.8 Celsius (1.4 Fahrenheit) since the start of
record-keeping in the 19th century.
The IPCC, which shared the
Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007, said the U.N. goal is still
possible but would require emissions cuts of 40 percent to 70 percent by
2050 and possibly the large-scale deployment of new technologies to
suck CO2 out of the air and bury it deep underground.
"The IPCC is
telling us in no uncertain terms that we are running out of time — but
not out of solutions — if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate
change," said Frances Beinecke, president of the Natural Resources
Defense Council, a Washington-based environmental group. "That requires
decisive actions to curb carbon pollution — and an all-out race to
embrace renewable sources of energy. History is calling."
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Karl Ritter can be reached at www.twitter.com/karl_ritter
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